American EV campaigner gives his views as to why long range EV's like the Solectria Sunrise, Nissan Altra EV and Honda EV+ aren't being marketed - or publicised in Europe.

First, Honda only came up with the EV+ in response to the "Zero Emission Vehicle" mandate. I can remember at the California Air Resources meeting, all the major Makers, Honda included, arguing that it was NOT possible to successfully market an EV or to meet the ZEV mandate. Some went farther, arguing that a practical EV was not possible.

Never the less, the swift response of the well-designed Honda EV+ shows that Honda *had* been working on EV's for many years. The fact that they solved the "cooling problem" which had confounded GM on its EV1 release (and, note, folks, they STILL have not released the NiMH EV1) so easily (with the help of Matsushita) shows that they were not just monkeying around -- they knew the latest technology, even better than GM. Their electronics were clearly superior to the half-hearted little "coast down" button on the EV1. The EV1 allows you to play with the regen braking, but the Honda has a serious, well-designed energy-sucking regenerative feature which is completely invisible to the driver. We always find that the EV+ is MUCH more efficient at re-capturing the energy of motion than the EV1.

So, clearly, even though Honda has been looking at the technology, they will only introduce it when they are forced to by a regulatory body or by the profit motive.

Secondly, and this answer impinges on that profit motive, you have to understand that the auto industry is a volume business. When you make a car, the cost per unit and the sales price per unit is a function of volume. A 300 car run means that the true cost of the car is somewhere like a Rolls Royce -- $250,000 per unit. A 10,000 car run could bring the cost down to $30,000. If you could get the volume up to 100,000, you could bring the cost down to around $12,000-$18,000. Ultimately, with a mass- produced single-design commuter car of 200 miles range and a production run of 1,000,000 units, the cost could be brought down to maybe $8,000-$12,000. If you think that's crazy, remember what Henry Ford did to the old-time hand-made car industry; also, the motor on an EV only costs around $800, the battery is maybe 800 lbs. of Nickel alloy (maybe costing $2,000-$4,000, at most), and the rest of the car consists of seats and windshields around some fancy but cheap electronics.

The point is, to get EV's down in price to their eventual level, you would need to take such a chunk out of the other cars' sales, that the auto industy would be at risk of being unprofitable in both. Prices might rise, uncertainty might postpone sales, and this is a risk which the Makers do not find it necessary to take.

Now, who else could mount a run of 20,000 or more EV's? Only the Makers have that kind of money and infrastructure. Solectria has the car, but not the seed money nor the clout to get the orders. So, there is no necessity for such a revolutionary change, therefore the Auto Makers won't push the issue unless forced.

Now if the auto makers are ambivalent, the Oil Companies are malevolent.

While EV's are a small issue to the Auto Makers, they are a deadly threat to the Oil infrastructure, to speak nothing of the gas stations (now largely owned by the Oil Companies), repair people (EV's would render whole ways of life obsolete -- the whole smog check industry, the muffler companies, the tune up guys, the transmission shops, on and on....). So there is a LOT of incentive to find some way to keep the ball rolling.

One such way would be hybrids, which still keep the gas stations open and the oil wells pumping and the refineries hopping. Ultimately, these folks hope that all you'll have to do is replace the engine with this new-fangled "fuel cell", and fill up with propane (maybe even gas, as a company called Plug Power hopes), and not stir up things too much.

Now, in light of those two points, who is going to push EV's in Europe or Asia? Obviously, not the oil companies, who are partners with the government in the $5 gas. Also, not the government, because they get lots of revenue from the gas, and have NO WISH to stop the money train from rolling in by threatening it with a ZEV mandate. Also, the air in European cities is not quite as bad as Los Angeles, so the issue can be ignored.

Mavericks? So far, no one has been willing to put up $1 billion in Europe to launch a really competitive EV. And, if they did, the governments would probably shut them down, because a large chunk of that $5 gas goes to government taxes. Making the European governments complicit in the Oil Industry. What would shake things up? Maybe if the Greens took power. But the Oil Industry is so powerful, it would take a bigger change that the Russian Revolution to make it stick. There would be fires, subornations, indictments, on and on. No one could buck that kind of pressure and stay in business.

So that's why its even less likely that EV's will come to Europe than the US.

Whooops, hold on, there are already EV's in Swiss cities. So, as I said, the Europeans know how to do it, it can be done, but you are bucking some very powerful interests who can only be moved by necessity.

Jim of EVUK comments:I agree almost with most of this - however I believe quite simply that if the public KNEW that long range high performance EV's even existed the ZEV - genie would burst out of the bottle and ould not be rammed back by any of the assorted vested interests (especially the media) who are determined to keep it firmly corked up.
Conspiracy theorist? I refer you to the history of BIG TOBACCO on the 50's, 60's and beyond.